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Investment Commentary

In the long run, those investors who have a plan and stick to it tend to be more successful. Such an effort requires an understanding of your objectives as well as your risk tolerance. Only you can determine your short-, medium-, and long-term financial goals. And only you know whether you can tolerate wild swings, to the upside as well as the downside.

Welcome to 2009

As time passes the global economy is coming closer to a bottom, notwithstanding the structural dislocations that we’ll have to deal with in the future. Expect the global economy to bottom by summer.

All this adds up to the fact over the long term, GM looks like a less than ideal investment opportunity, and for good reason. But in the short term, it looks like an interesting trade idea on the government bailouts.

Now that we’ve discussed Money Management 101, let’s turn to our central question of where to place your money in 2009. The answer to this question comes from one of the preeminent investors of our time, George Soros. Soros’ advice is to follow the money flows, or in other words to go with the prevailing trends.

Buying Uncle Sam

Like it or not, big government fiscal stimulus plans are back in vogue. For at least the next two years, a tidal wave of US and foreign government spending will hit global markets, powering major tailwinds for certain industry groups and stocks. At least for a time, this wall of cash will also likely push a recovery in global economies and stock markets.

There’s still a risk that bad economic news will send stocks lower and Treasuries higher. But the past couple weeks’ trading was nonetheless a welcome change from the previous action. And it appears confidence in at least some companies--namely those whose businesses remain strong in the face of current adversity--is building once again.

Demand will remain the primary focus of oil markets for at least the next few months. But what’s more interesting to me than demand and the implications of volatile short-term economic data is the ongoing supply destruction that’s evident for both oil and natural gas.

Higher Ground

The recent turmoil engulfing the global financial system and economy has had a significant impact on all businesses. There’s a great deal of uncertainty about where we’re headed in 2009, which makes it all the more important to understand how tight credit conditions, for example, will affect day-to-day operations for companies.

Retailers Feel the Pinch

The holiday season hasn’t been kind to retailers, with sales falling past levels seen in the previous recession. Although retailers resorted to deep price cuts--both prior to and in the immediate aftermath of the holidays--same-store sales are still projected to have fallen as much as 2 percent. That’s one of the worst declines since 1970.

Sustainability Trumps Yields

The biggest mistake income-oriented investors make is to simply look for stocks with high-percentage yields. This is a sure path to disaster.

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